A research conducted by Atsuo Komatsubara et al. was published in Journal of Cleaner Production.
As the transition toward decarbonization accelerates, the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is increasing worldwide. This trend raises concerns about growing demand for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which are essential materials for lithium-ion batteries. Increased demand may lead to higher mineral prices and affect future vehicle electrification. Previous studies often did not fully capture how BEV deployment increases mineral demand and how resulting mineral price changes affect battery costs and vehicle adoption.
In this study, we developed a light-duty vehicle technology-choice model linked to the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), incorporating interactions among critical mineral demand, mineral prices, battery costs, and vehicle choice. The results indicate that accounting for mineral price increases could reduce the global BEV share of new vehicle sales in 2050 from 32% to 18% under the modeled mitigation pathway. The analysis also shows that mineral recycling and a transition toward lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries can help mitigate this decline. These findings highlight the potential influence of critical mineral price increases on BEV diffusion and suggest that recycling and resource-efficient battery technologies may help alleviate such impacts.
The proposed framework can support the evaluation of electrification strategies that explicitly consider critical mineral demand and price dynamics.
Title: Impacts of Critical Minerals on the Diffusion of Light-Duty Battery Electric Vehicles under Endogenous Price–Demand Feedbacks
Authors: Komatsubara, A., Goko, H., Nishi, T.
Journal Name: Journal of Cleaner Production
Published: April 8, 2026